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  Anticipatory action

Anticipate, prepare, recover

Advances in weather forecasting and climate science now enable us to act before disasters strike rather than investing primarily in humanitarian response afterwards. These anticipatory approaches enable more people to receive the needed assistance ahead of predictable shocks.

Anticipatory action saves lives and limits the impact of disasters, and is a hallmark of the Climate Centre mission. Specifically, our work on anticipatory action builds on a long-standing element in the Climate Centre’s work: assisting the mainstreaming of early warning early action into Red Cross Red Crescent disaster management worldwide.

Our team comprises meteorologists, social scientists, hydrologists, and humanitarian experts, and our expertise notably lies in designing anticipatory action, including forecast-based financing (FbF), a concept developed by the Climate Centre and the German Red Cross in the early 2000s. Based on forecast information and risk analysis, FbF ensures the timely release of humanitarian funding for activities agreed in advance to meet a hazard.

We support anticipatory action and FbF in many ways, and are closely involved in developing forecast-based financing programmes worldwide, providing ongoing technical support to National Societies and their partners working on the concepts.

In addition to developing these mechanisms, we spearhead advocacy efforts, capacity building, research, critical reflection, learning and innovation on all aspects of anticipatory action. We also support mainstreaming the anticipatory approaches into social protection systems to ensure they are scaled up.

For more information contact Irene Amuron, Head of Anticipatory Action, on [email protected].

Bangladesh heatwave
Early action protocol

Bangladesh heatwave

In early 2024 the Bangladesh Red Crescent for the first time activated its early action protocol for heatwave, enabling anticipatory actions in the capital, Dhaka, before the worst impacts of extreme heat were likely to be felt by people at heightened risk. It represented a significant expansion of forecast-based action.

IFRC-DREF sent just under 500,000 Swiss francs to support actions to assist 124,000 vulnerable people.

 

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Anticipatory action by the IFRC

The IFRC rolled out its improved approach to forecast-based financing approach in 2014. In 2018 it launched a forecast-based pillar of the Disaster Response Emergency Fund – its dedicated funding mechanism – that enables National Societies take early action before disasters strike.

To be effective, the IFRC says, it must involve meaningful engagement with at-risk communities themselves.

Anticipation Hub

The Hub, hosted by the German Red Cross, shares knowledge and experience on anticipatory humanitarian action to help scale up efforts in different countries, for different hazards by a range of users.

It is a platform for learning from experience, building partnerships, fostering coordination, and for the development and diffusion of new ideas.

The Hub will achieve these goals by connecting stakeholders, facilitating exchange and learning between individuals, governments, policy-makers, the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement, NGOs, UN agencies, researchers and other actors interested in anticipatory humanitarian action.

Report

Scoping Anticipatory Action in Timor-Leste

The Government of Timor-Leste is strengthening its early warning systems and forecasting capacity with support from the Green Climate Fund, and now a new report jointly compiled by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (also available as a policy brief) recommends that the country’s Civil Protection Authority creates a contingency fund to finance Anticipatory Action alongside, but separate from, the CPA’s annual budget. (Library photo, Timor-Leste Red Cross rescue people affected by Cyclone Seroja in April 2021.)

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Scoping Anticipatory Action in Timor-Leste
Video

Early action seeds in Kenya

Farmers in Kenya’s southern Kwale county who had turned to logging and quarrying after prolonged drought harvested a variety of crops in early 2023 thanks to an early-action distribution of specialized seeds by the Kenya Red Cross Society.

Supported by the British and Dutch Red Cross, the operation began in October 2022 with the distribution to 1,500 farmers of three drought-tolerant and disease-resistant seeds: green grams, cowpeas and sorghum, replacing traditional but vulnerable maize; they were selected in consultation with the farmers and experts from the Department of Agriculture.

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